Ann: Trading Halt, page-34

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jlo2012

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01/04/19

18:55

Post #: 37955327
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Originally posted by DoubleDown!: ↑
Its pretty important to look at the history of the company. The company has issued a lot of new shares and accepted a lot of capital so looking at the market cap versus revenues is important too. A lot of capital has been issued and has not translated into sales... yet

Dec 31 2015 2016 2017 2018
1 Revenue $7.6m $8.7m $6.5m $12.8m
2 Shares on issue 167k 217k 434k 683k
3 SP 12.2c 5.3c 1.5c 10.5c
4 MCAP $16.7m $11.5m $6.5m $71.7m
5 Rev/share 45c 40c 15c 19c
6 Rev to MCAP 2.2x 1.3x 1x 5.6x

All these indicators show that AB1 has a lot of speculation and expectation built in compared to its past. Its market cap is high because of all the new stock issued and is share price has had a massive bull run in the year. There have been 8 trading halts involving new partnerships and capital raises since January 2018.

I don't blame the market for waiting to see what starts to happen with AB1. Its market cap is flying way ahead of its revenues and I think it needs to show some banked revenues to really get value underpinning its market valuation.

The fact that the company has been given exemption from providing the market with 4C's is a concern to me. I believe that the September Q cash flow statement was quite erroneous (sorry to sound like a downramper!). Simply put if you look at the September 4C it shows a YTD net cash flow for operation of minus (!) $183k. How then is it possible for AB1 to have four positive cash flow statements in a row?

The June 4C shows a YTD net cash flow of $714k. The Sept 4C a net cash of $7k - yet the YTD figure of these amounts is -$183k. It does NOT add up.

I have emailed the company a query on this and am yet to hear back. If this is confusing open the June and Sept Cash flows and compare them side by side, and you will see that the addition of the line items is way way out of whack.

Further if you add all the net cash flows from each 4C (March, June, Sept, Dec 2018) together you get $1.425m, but the Dec total shows $522k which was then revised to $330k in the 4E (prelim annual report, haven't checked the full one yet).

Given the ASX based its decision to relieve AB1 of quarterly cash flow reporting based on these 4C's I think it deserves some scrutiny.
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100% agree with this view. I'm sorry but these guys call a trading halt at the drop of a hat. Of course when there is a CR they need to but some of the other halts over the past 12 month have IMO been unnecessary and have a "pumpy" vibe to them.

Agree that moving away from 4Cs has happened too soon and is a reason I'm steering clear. There is not a clear, constant growth pattern in cashflow positive quarters.

I think a lot of expectation is already priced in here. GLTAH.

AB1 Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add AB1 (ASX) to my watchlist

		Dec 31 2015	2016	2017	2018
1	Revenue	$7.6m	$8.7m	$6.5m	$12.8m
2	Shares on issue	167k	217k	434k	683k
3	SP	12.2c	5.3c	1.5c	10.5c
4	MCAP	$16.7m	$11.5m	$6.5m	$71.7m
5	Rev/share	45c	40c	15c	19c
6	Rev to MCAP	2.2x	1.3x	1x	5.6x

Ann: Trading Halt, page-34

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