Hope this helps, the main points in Morgan's report is set out below.
Corporate Travel Management
1 Points for premium status
2 CTD’s 1H19 result beat our forecast reporting 21% underlying EBITDA growth. ■ While cashflow was weak, it was better than expected and importantly strong cashflow is forecast in the 2H19. We note that CTD’s cashflow was positive unlike the rest of the sector which reports a 1H outflow due to seasonal factors.
While full year guidance was maintained, it looks conservative given the strength ■ of the 1H19 result. Importantly, with the tech hubs now in place in the US and Asia, margins in these regions should start to scale. We have made minor upgrades to our forecasts and now sit slightly ahead of guidance.
We maintain an Add rating with a new price target of A$31.65. The next catalyst ■ from here is a sizeable acquisition.
3 1H19 beats expectations
CTD delivered a strong 1H19 result which exceeded our forecast. Underlying EBITDA rose 21% to A$64.6m (Morgans was A$63.5m). Importantly, 85% of the growth was by organic means with the acquisitions of SCT and Lotus Travel adding just A$0.4m and A$1.3m of EBITDA to the result. Strong results were posted in ANZ (EBITDA +18%), Europe (EBITDA +30%) and Asia (EBITDA +34%). Each of these regions benefited from strong client activity (except UK given Brexit uncertainty), record client wins and retention and continued efficiency gains. As guided to, North America EBITDA was up only 3% as CTD implemented its technology capabilities in the region which saw one-off developments of A$2m. Pleasingly global overheads fell slightly as CTD benefits from scale. Cashflow conversion was weak (45%) due to timing issues but in line with guidance and was slightly better than our forecast of 40%. The interim dividend of 18cps ff (up from 15cps the pcp) was in line with our forecast.
FY19 guidance remains unchanged but looks conservative
CTD reiterated that it is trading at the top end of its FY19 underlying EBITDA guidance range or A$150m, up 19.6% on FY18. Given the strong 1H result, track record of surprising on the upside and favourable FX, we believe guidance is conservative. Earnings are seasonally skewed to the 2H (40-43% 1H vs 57-60% 2H). We have made only minor upgrades to our EBITDA forecasts and we now sit slightly ahead of guidance. The upgrades at the NPAT level are even less due to higher amortisation and tax. Importantly, full year cashflow conversion is expected to be ~100%.
Foundations in place for a big FY20
Benefiting from a full year of Lotus and the tech hubs in Asia and the US, we believe that CTD is well positioned to deliver strong earnings growth in FY20. While not included in our forecasts, further accretive acquisitions are likely. CTD is continuing to explore M&A opportunities in North America and Europe. It said its pipeline is full and that the opportunities are getting larger.
Investment view – Add rating and A$31.65 price target
We maintain an Add rating on this quality growth company. Following forecast changes and rolling forward to FY20, our blended valuation and price target have risen to A$31.65 per share (A$26.72).
Current price:
A$28.81
Target price:
A$31.65
Previous target:
A$26.72
Up/downside:
9.9%
Reuters:
CTD.AX
Bloomberg:
CTD AU
Market cap:
US$2,223m
A$3,126m
Average daily turnover:
US$5.52m
A$8.37m
Current shares o/s
108.5m
Free float:
79.4%
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- Does anyone have a copy of the Morgans report on 21 Feb
Does anyone have a copy of the Morgans report on 21 Feb, page-2
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