Good post Michael, welcome aboard.
The unwind is separate to the net debt reduction as CTP management note net debt being MQ debt + cash in their latest presentation.
I have put together a bsaic forecast cashflow below.
1. Phase 1 cash with normalised accounting adj. This is basically CY19 provided by management with cash impacts of accounting unwinds in future years. Have included MQ only as I assume we will continue to receive / unwind PWC in year and therefore have not considered here.
2. Phase 2 cash generated. This is the "bull case" taking into account phase 1 above, (a) with a 3 - 5 year GSA signed at rates $1 GJ higher than current pricing, (b) phase 2 gas volumes at 10 TJ a day and (c) interest savings due to debt refinance / amortisation of debt.
All things else remain constant, for simplicity. I believe we have c. $5-7m of costs provisioned in CY19 for O-3, so comfortable rolling this forward as cost commitments.
Looks quite good eh? Go the CTP.
