This would be my best guess, and you can cut and paste this in the months ahead.
Jiaming have and are testing the Young laterite. My information tells me they are making substantial profits from processing Ni laterites in China. In other words they know what they are doing.
Therefore when the formal agreement is signed later this year, IMO the pilot plant will be producing 12 months from that date @3000tpa. What also needs to be noted is that JRV only needs to put up the licences for the investment of $45m in the New Co by Jiaming/China Rail. If the project does not proceed past this first stage then JRV would retain the licences. JRV at this stage would have received US$3m plus capital from the 19.9% of shares issued. Yeah, sigh, more shares but this amounts to over $8m and note the restriction on voting rights in the release. If the process does not work it's not going to bust JRV. JRV is in a stronger position to pursue other projects.China Rail is determined to push JRV as big mining house in Australia for future projects. That is in the ASX release if you read it closely.
China Rail is determined to go mining (look at their Cu mine in the Congo). They have to be game for that!!!
After feasibility study is done, plant is built which IMO would be running within 3 years. Have a look at China Rail's web site, they did not stand around wondering how to build the next bridge, tunnel, roadway etc. They have the capability to finance and manage projects far bigger than Young.
As for JRV's future:
If all goes well a MINIMUM of 20% in New Co which is producing a MINIMUM of 50,000tpa Ni. That folks is a hell of a lot of money. They can contribute to retain 30%!!
This is a fantastic deal for JRV and the market will come around to understanding this.
The CAPEX on this is estimated to be less than $800m which is a fraction of Ravensthorpe ($2.3b)with the same 50,000tpa Ni.
These figures are not #ull$hit they are a reality if all goes to plan.
Do your sums guys and make up your own mind.
To me this is a deal of a lifetime and good luck to all us shareholders.
Deepdiver
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