I'm not saying there wont be fluctuations but I think there is a factor that is being missed in this post PFS/share price debate.
MYL is valued at 40-45c on existing resources by the two analysts who evaluate the stock. In both cases there is an appreciation of large upside potential but also a 50% discount for finance, country risk etc. Keeping in mind that MYL have an MOU with China inc to provide finance (and they have only recently come back from site visits to the mother companies other interests in China and Laos where that desire was reiterated) and that the government (semi democratic) has a strong interest in seeing the project succeed, that 50% valuation discount will start to disappear over coming months.
While it isn't unusual to see companies lose a little share price momentum post PFS, because of the above factors I think there is a rational reason to expect the opposite in this case. The current share price of 8c to 9c is a fraction of the 40c plus valuations and the gap will be closed at some time. I know I will personally be helping close it over the next 12 months. I intend to double my holding over that period. I believe we will see funds, probably Asian based, jump in after the certainty of a PFS metrics are added. Before the year is out we should have a BFS and based on substantially greater resources. Don't forget the data for calculating PFS was ruled off mid December and meaningful discoveries have been made subsequently. We will likely also have multiple exploration successes. Probably a copper/cobalt circuit added to concentrates. One only has to look at the exploration track record over the past 12 months to get an idea of where this can go.
Then of course, we have the issue of mining licences expected in the new year and Perilya coming out of standstill mid year. So in the extraordinary circumstance that we dont see substantial re-rating over the next month, we only have 12 months to be at a very exciting period with continuing exploration along the way. The potential for an auction involving majors is real and the fall back position in owning the 'world's best lead/silver mine' is a great stop loss
. MYL's presentations give a good overview of the potential for competitive bids for the company. IMO, the deposits are too big to remain in the hands of a junior and they will be pursued at some point in the next 12 months. The bot activity of recent days may be an early clue?
PS With regards country risk, keep in mind that Myanmar have tried other models and not far back in history. They have obviously worked out that progress for their country required change and they have implemented that change. In part, that change is reflected in a Mining code based largely on West Australia's mining law. It's probably not coincidental considering many of the politicians and bureaucrats charge with implementing these changes were educated at Australian Universities. Past attempts to manage Bawdwin by the military resulted in the closure of the mine. This has both created the opportunity for MYL share holders and been a stark reminder for Myanmar that there are benefits in having an Australian based model manage the opportunity for all parties. The government still gets development, jobs, infrastructure and 50% of the profits without any capital investment. It's a win win. Then add the China one belt one road infrastructure that passes through within close proximity.
