Looks like this update hasn't had any big surprises with the sp not moving much. My take;
Negatives; Projected company sales to B&M for the March quarter are on the light side but we knew they would be down significantly as JB has not done any significant restocking. They had essentially been running stock down from a larger inventory position before Christmas and only been maintaining lower levels of stock since (we saw this on the JB website "click and collect" levels). Guidance going forward is lower than I expected for the period before the UK kicks in but with JB not maintaining higher stock levels the company may be putting out lower than expected guidance preferring to surprise on the upside when reporting actual sales. Selling on the ASX prior to this news may have priced this in. It was no surprise that JB was keeping stock at low levels.
Positives; 1. The company previously reported 3100 new app subscriptions for January alone. A few hundred of those may have been for watches bought in December but those parents that buy two watches only need to pay for 1 app (for them, 1 new app subscription equates to two watches being purchased). That means it's pretty likely that consumers purchased at least 3,000 watches in January alone. This isn't reflected in the companies guidance because JB must have bought less than they sold in the quarter. They can't continue to sell more than they purchase so that can't last long. Based on that, I think the company will beat their guidance going forward. 2. First quarter forecast UK sales of 3,000 units. Considering they haven't kicked off yet that will only reflect 2-2.5 months of sales. I'd be very happy with 3,000 watches in 2-2.5 months from online only sales in the UK. It was only several hundred watches per month sold in Australia in the first few months so management must be very confident on the UK. They also estimate 10,000 in the UK for B&M in the first quarter. That might be inline with Aus/NZ's first quarter to B&M which was the Christmas quarter but it's not Christmas for the UK B&M rollout, so again that would be a good number for the UK's first qtr for B&M. It's probably too early for Dec qtr guidance but that would be a much bigger quarter than anything they are guiding on up to Sep and will reflect full quarter sales from both Aus/NZ and UK. 3. The company has said that they will be selling through an Australian Telco later this year and there's reason to believe that will be Telstra. Telstra has 360 outlets which is better than 50% more than JB and Telstra store's specialise in mobile phones. There is strong potential there for sales to more than double in Aus and hopefully other retailers will be added. 4. Aus, NZ, UK. There is no reason to expect the company will stop at the UK.
