I was thinking more along the lines of your thoughts on a current risked value per share:
potential reservoir(s) size x recovery factor x % stake x net price per bbl x CoS. For oil, gas, He + CH4, taking into account no of shares in issue, options & potential bond issues of course.
"probibility of strike oil etc based on all these factors is 78.21 % surity of striking"
Scary stuff. I hope you're right (& know you are not), but also hope you are basing your investment decision on more than crossed fingers.
the key to the kingdom, page-4
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