STA (ASX) Ann: Coburn DFS Delivers Strong Financial Returns

Originally posted by seals: ↑

hi 2ic. Your maths isn’t wrong in so far as it’s consistent with your logic. The question i’d ask testing your posts is whether or not your assumptions are correct, or complete.

Just referring to your last post, do you think you’ve picked up all the strands? eg
- starting point is TZMI pricing, an external reference point
- what were those prices? To what extent do tzmi assumptions allow for long term differentials that might vary from your reasoning eg costs of producing premium zircon being a drag on relative value?
- what were the discounts/transforms applied? And to which groups?
- what were the underlying points of rationale regarding downstream handling costs? Does it correlate to end use? If so is the particular mix one of special value to an expected end user that might justifydifferent valuations than your inferred ratios? (Probably unlikely but something to follow on from your line of questioning)

i’m not denigrating your investigation in the slightest. Just suggesting, even discounting my questions, there may be more to bring into your model that the company would be best placed to provide. I’d be pleased to see what you come up with.

So far as your minnow quote, yes many behave that way. There is a consistent record here though that Luke graham does not, being more inclined to get the detail out and hope the market responds. Given it hardly ever has I think He could probably do a bit more selling and I guess probably will now this info is in the market.

I’m not seeing how the two releases this week can be classed as gilding the lily. Honestly though, I still haven’t had time to fully digest them, partly from being busy but partly from being dense with information. Of course there must necessarily be things not disclosed eg some of the background per my questions above but I’m not reading these announcements and thinking things are being hidden from me to ‘gild the lily’, are you? I usually find it’s plain to pick when that is happening - JoRC be damned!

It’s good to question and test and i’m interested to see your ultimate conclusions. For the sake of my cognitive balance, hopefully it comes out shining

Expand

Hi Seals

To be clear I am not accusing STA of gilding the lily, simply that in my experience it happens all the time. I hate to remember the number of companies that have gone out backwards while spruiking their projects positive credentials in a less than honest manner. Call it exageration, call it positive spin, call it emphasising the positives while forgetting to mention the fatal flaws it doesn't matter. What matters to me is looking for any fatal flaws or inaccuracies to guide me getting in or getting out of investments in a timely manner. Nearly every project is released with great headline numbers and look like a bargains, otherwise juniors move on tot he next. Reality is very few actually go the distance because the sausage doesn't match the sizzle.

To be clear, the headline numbers (NPV, IRR, revenue to cost ratio per tonne of VHM production etc) look fantastic for Coburn. The capex is lower for a higher NPV over almost the same mine life (extension scoping study included) than Thunderbird if everything is correct and realistic, yet STA's capex is 25% of SFX. STA has the Tanzanian assets to boot.

I'm doing what everyone else should be doing right now. Looking at the eye-watering good returns from this seemingly tier 1, fully permitted project and wondering why and how such a stray dog has been turned into a blue ribbon pedigree pooch. Why, what am I missing, is this for real, wtf with the lack of market interest?

Cheers