There are many pieces of guesswork stated as if they're facts here ... so much that its hard to know where to start
I'll do what I can to point some of those out, while also noting that I can give you personal points of view here but for formal company updates you'll be wanting to get those from the company (e.g. via ASX-released market updates).
With that said...
The contention made earlier in this thread that 250/mth isn't enough to achieve a cashflow positive stance? Well, it turns out that this wasn't a company issued update after all (it did sound like it was when first mentioned in this thread - but it actually wasn't).
Rather, it was a third party opinion on another web site. I hope it is clear that an expressed third party opinion is not something Redflow controls, and it does not constitute a formal change of stance advised to the market by the company. There hasn't been one of those.
When might we see the next formal company update? The next one will, I expect, be at the AGM - later this month.
Is "spending 4.5m to earn $338k" something that is 'out of kilter'? Well, only if you don't appreciate that Redflow spent the last year or so creating a new factory from scratch on the other side of the planet to the previous one. That does, to state the obvious, require both time and money, and (to state the equally obvious) its a bit hard to make batteries when your production equipment is in transit and then when you're hiring and training a new team of manufacturing staff.
You might expect more aggressive product promotion if you didn't appreciate that Redflow sells its products at
wholesale to the energy systems integration industry - not directly at retail... and/or if you missed the last ASX market update noting (in part) the establishment of a new training process and paths to tool up more systems integrators to use Redflow products. The whole idea of that is so that
they can then start to promote that outcome to
their retail customers.
Yes, of course we also want to be a positive part of directly promoting the merit of our technology as well - and we do that where appropriate (for instance: https://simonhackett.com/2018/05/27/the-role-of-flow-batteries-in-dispatchable-renewable-energy-grids/ ) ... but we do it in support of our customers - who are energy system integrators, not end users. Most of our direct efforts are (correctly) made in support of our integrators.
Of course, in the real world, you can't pursue sales (via any path) very well without stock. Have a think about how hard it is to supply some batteries into trials and pilots to provide the evidence and experience to make bigger sales, if you don't have any batteries to ship.
As I've said lately, we do now have stock on hand again, but that's a pretty recent development, at the end of a very long road to create that new manufacturing capability in Thailand and to catch up on backlogs.
Next thing - 'how can 70 staff making 42 batteries for the qtr' make sense? Because the factory has been ramping up from zero and necessarily putting quality ahead of quantity in the first instance; and also because there's a difference between fixed overheads and variable ones. Or ... to put it another way - no, the number of staff needed doesn't rise linearly with the number of batteries made per month, and neither does linear extrapolation of staff numbers hired during the initial production ramp period make sense as a yardstick for extrapolating staff numbers at higher production levels.
And... while I'd love all of Redflow's R&D costs to be magically funded by grants, sorry, we don't actually live in that world.
To the contention that 'sales may be a problem' the answer is 'of course' - any company not making something for a year while moving factories is going to have a challenge with sales when they return to the process of working on building a new sales pipeline.
Now that the company is making products smoothly in the new factory, and now there is some reasonable stock on hand, now that we've hired a new chief commercial officer and now that he's filling out the rest of the sales infrastructure - this is where the sales efforts really begin. Its not just a tap, you don't just turn it off for a year and turn it back on again and expect the water to be there at full pressure from day one. That's not a real world situation - for any business, let alone for one selling a unique and specialised product such as this.
I have strong personal optimism that now we have all the precursor ducks in a row - most importantly including 'making stuff we can actually sell'- that efforts toward restarting and rebuilding a real sales pipeline can now commence in earnest.
How much damage was done to brand from a period of deep challenges with reliability and supply? Obviously some - though I'll say we've been quite encouraged with the extent to which those customers who see the merits of the product have been waiting for us to be back on the road again. The recent pilot sale into South Africa is just one small example of that.
Redflow is - of course - working on other opportunities right now with its various commercial scale integrators in various countries.
In addition, as I noted the other day, we have also (only just) re-opened the door for residential ZCell sales again (now we have stock on hand in Australia to support our installers with again - at last).
Its much harder to make a real thing and sell it than to just talk about it, especially with a product that has no direct equal, and that nobody else makes. This is not an easy path. This is not a low risk exercise - and it has never been framed as being easy. Redflow is a speculative investment in a startup, working hard at turning the (difficult) corner into becoming a commercial viable entity.
No, they didn't 'clear the backlog by selling 30 batteries'. It took a lot more than that to clear the backlog - we had pending sales (previously announced and paid for) to fulfil, and we also had some in-field batteries to change out under warranty (the last of the residual legacy of less than ideal product quality from our previous factory). Its been a long path to get to the point of having stock on hand again - but we are there now (but only just there - that's the point).
There's a real catch-22 inherent in obsessing too hard over these various (and often rubbery) numbers being waved about in this particular thread.
Those who have invested in the company - myself included - generally hold the view that the world needs (and can gain benefit from) the product; they feel that once we can reliably make reliable batteries, we have a great shot at selling them successfully. This is the point we are at 'just about now'.
Once Redflow builds a decent sales pipeline (this being the current major task - and one that really has only just become possible again with the present of batteries in stock), then we can use that sales success as the driver to keep optimising the manufacturing cost.
None of this is easy or guaranteed. it has been an exceptionally difficult journey and the company is still here only because of the ongoing and much appreciated support of its shareholders over many years.
I think the company has never been better placed than it is today to have a shot at success, but its still going to take a while to crank up the sales engine, and its all happening in an environment that contains multiple and substantial aspects of business risk.
Finally, the trick with feeling that 'it does not give potential buyers confidence when it is impossible to get clear picture of current situation' is that your sense of clarity is, sincerely, not going to be improved by grasping onto every third party guess and misunderstanding as if its a statement of fact by the company.
And...that's about all I can say (or feel like saying) in this thread. I hope its been at least a little bit of help to some of you.