1 dollar in 3 to 6 months discussion thread, page-2

Remember, it's not a small capitalised company. It's almost half a billion. For that, you would want to attribute some sort of revenue generation process, which is what this first oil expectancy is all about.

No one can predict where its going in how long. Many professionals are still baffled at the meteoric rise in Fortescue, and many others are placing their hopes in the vast ocean of iron ore prospects to emulate that.

One thing thats for certain, based on the company's information to the marketplace thus far,

15000 bpd of oil from Galoc = 3000 barrels of oil for Nido (22%)
80 dollars a barrel after recovery = 240000 per day
6 days a week = 1.44 mil per week
52 weeks a year = 75 mil in revenue per year.

attribute 20% off for recovery rates, storms, accidents, delays, capex, worst case scenario = 50 million dollars a year in eps.

thats on a PE of 10, if the market capitalisation is still at 500 million, which in theory is by no means expensive.

So on that back of the envelope theory, you vary the oil price, and the barrels per day, you will get your own estimation as to what the share price is worth. (I used 80 dollars because thats what the big firms use on the big oil stocks).

So at 500 million market capitalisation, its on a PE of 10 worst case scenario, best case scenario, PE of 5 (100 per barrel, and 4000 bpd).

So lets see what the well spouts!!!