kalis 1 and over half of nogal valley 4 sale, page-14

Nothing is more consistent than change Jimmy.


The oil ( sealing faults and geostrophic episodic events excluded) changes it's fundamental situation over a much slower time frame.

What has changed in the past 3 years since the black donnolly Leo Greek affair that got this whole enterprise rolling?

What has become apparent ?

What has failed to materialise ?

Excluding the Cecil B-Deheamer pump and dump mid last year;

Apart from the occasional mini pump and dump to keep some interest in the sp what were we waiting for since it was implied- proposed-programmed ??

Drilling and first discovery perhaps ?

But in this time frame we have seen Ethiopian occupation, weakened TFG, Sporadic Islamic Courts attempts at domination, Somaliland recalcitrance, constant dialogue regarding Punty Govt corruption al q al j al s and all the other big als attempting to bankrupt the country with funny money from their hq's in Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia to soften Somalia up for their own turn at taking over the horn, and much closer to home...Opes transparency.

I was initially impressed with the very positive potential that AFRICA-COMMAND (africom) might bring, stability wise to the horn (dec 06)...Now even they won't set up shop in the horn but prefer to watch from Europe. (another recent change of events)

3 years ago the TFG had 3 and a half years left in which to sort the horn out...seemed plausible then,,,now with only months remaining, the prerequisite census has not even been completed so as to hold free elections, and to top off the rule of law stability concept, Puntland govt may also seek to extend without popular mandate...Considering a number of majors and generals and Doctors are running pre election campaigns, I dont see this as ''stability enhancing'' do you ?

When Yusef gives up the ghost, will there be enough direction and party numbers to fill his boots without high velocity lead arbitration ?

If there are actual free elections in Punty in January will Hersi be a shoe in again ? UN and international public
outcry for electoral transparency being as topical as it is in this part of the world?

Will they have the same covalent agenda with consort private rrs aio considering every minister and his goat has their own Oil Co of choice ?

Without further cap raisings can brown paper bags be filled ?

Then we have the constant militant diatribe regarding the highly disputed Punty/ Somaliland border, with the Sool Sanaag Ayr districts being much more than no mans land demanding to be recognised as neither fish nor fowl.Oil rich disputed zones mind you,,something worth fighting over. A fight yet to materialise.

This and the constant drilling protractions have made the time of the essence thing potentially desperate from where I have the luxury of sitting....

But oil is expensive, rewarding and strategic...

Sooner or later it will be commercially discovered somewhere in the horn.

Nothing much of a physical nature can happen covertly in the horn, there are just too many interested and splintered self interest groups.

Anything that happens there is telegraphed like a rocky slo mo upper cut round the world.

I'm still not convinced that super majors will let a major discovery go uncontested- terra nullius, force majeure ex appropriation or what ever, if the reserves turn out to really be world class as so many here (self included) suspect.

So as the nogal valley goes on the back burner for more reasons than hopefuls here will admit to, and AOI RRS Hersi ramp up activity under armed guard and an emtying sand glass,,, pumpadumpas excluded, there is fundamentally more downside sp risk to upside...I say pumpadumpas excluded because the tree has been propping that way now for weeks and we saw super saturation become precipitation in round 1 on friday...

...........................................................

Consort have to be looked after rrs is consort is rrs.

Their shares are escrowed ( apart from the 4.4million that managed to be tfr'd to exchange minerals for services rendered).

They aint gonna sellem for 10c 20c 30c when they can sell em for much more are they ?

Even tho they were free they aint gonna give em away...

But between now and then the 08 oppies have to look a lot healthier....pumpadumpas building up to a pre January spud anns would make good horse sense..

08 oppie holders postulate in the money for sure...the company could do with the 63 million bucks.thankou very nuch.

Others may postulate a sp run up that falls short pre Oct 08 followed by a white knight underwriter, then a drill program....underwritten oppies in the money,,,guess who is in the win win seat..

Meanwhile, look at the chart, and failing a surprise anns putting a rig in the lower nogal down nogal 1 way with an ACTUAL rig spud AUG/SEP, and subject to no purana task force surprises, there will possibly/probably be opportunity entry points..

Those who play the hit and run day trader wheel of fortune would have had to be blind not to see the tree propping over the last coupla weeks with predictable outcome.

The stock is obsessively coverted or considered poison depending upon your risk reward and mgnt perspective.

Yes it's my hobby horse too..

Just total speculation and highly personalised conjecture.

So dont own it...it's a theory...theories are meant to be torn apart...but logically...none of this ''he said she said'' therefore its gospel or apocrphic stuff Nothing is more constant than change remember...It will change subject to incorperating the next fact/rumour/surprise/correction.

Dismiss relevant discussion if you must.

cheers D