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0.2¢ cfoam limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-15

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Sailor1

2,244 Posts.

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30/04/19

10:54

Post #: 38322445
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Originally posted by 22112215: ↑

Few things of interest,
- Regarding production phase, it would suggest demand has increased dramatically as phase 2a (45k cft) is being completely skipped and phase 2b (100k cft) is now the target. Definitely a positive sign for how qualification process are going. Phase 2a decision was supposed to have been completed last quarter so something has come up in that timeframe, to switch production targets so vastly, maybe why the uplift we have seen in the last month or so in buying/SP.(Yes I know it has mostly come from one person).Added bonus is there is only 8 weeks left so a material ANN should be on the cards soon.
-Uplift in structures and tooling. Navy is classified as structures, as is flooring for aircraft, spaceships and rail cars.
-Commercialisation. In Nov 2018 we had around 13-20 projects 6-9 months from commercialisation or beyond an MOU, so within the next 2 quarters those should be starting to come through with billet orders, interesting the language used portrays CFO is currently hindered by its production amount, unable to take on contacts for lack of billets. With the substantial increase to 100k cft over the next year, rough estimates at $320-$375 per cft avg sale price, the revenue should be in the range of $32m-$37.5m. ROI should dramatically increase with expansion but I will refrain from posting my estimates on that.
-The suspense of delisting from the ASX. Something is brewing and it's going to be put forward for approval, my guess a T/O by management or something of the like.
Range? Between 40c-55c. If that happens suspect it to happen in the next month or 2, the pipeline will be coming to fruition soon and the market value currently doesn't fully factor the production quality or demand for Cfoam coming in the next 3 years.
-C25 and C30 look like they are going to be our bread and butter, good to hear improvements are still being made as we are progressing to commercilsation with product that is now being surpassed, not resting on their laurels, imagine the process will be expeditied with improved quality product now to OEMs and tooling clients who are still in the testing and qualification process.

All in all, happy with management and the direction we are processing in. Will not be happy with a buyout as I see the next 5 years as a building process that should prove to be yearly and consistently very profitable for those with some patience.

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Thanks for the insight 22112215.
My only lingering concern here is the possibility of delisting / management buyout.
When and if it is put to shareholders my gut tells me to vote NO as I feel that I'd be selling the stock too cheaply. However, having watched a similar event with NEN I would be very nervous to hold. Those that held on to their shares are now in a position of finding it nigh on impossible to sell their shares at anything above 50% of their real cash backed value. Management is non-communicative is a big way and the tension is palpable.
Hopefully we are not pushed down that path.

CFO Price at posting: 26.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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