Hi TT,
Going to have to change the model a bit. I did contact Eric for some clarity (also asked about earnings conf call ... there will be one ... didn't ask date but I think we know the rough schedule from prior year).
Per Eric, the 25 wells INCLUDED the Dimmit wells for D&C purposes. Dimmit wells EXCLUDED from production & cash flows.
So for my modelling I have at least 2 wells to many ... midpoint would be 23 (drilled). I might switch to a 0/6/8/7 schedule for IP purposes. I'm a little more long term focused to see where we end up end 2021 (with '20 &'21 on a 6 wells Qtr based steady state) with consistent drilling of our approx 17 year inventory at that rate.
I need to consider that my modeling DOES NOT take into account downtime, weather, scheduling conflicts and the other myriad of potential delays that push IP by a few days here and a few days there, but with this many wells on production and growing that could end up in potentially 100's of production days a year. So I might even build in a 5% total reduction off the "perfect world".
That said, everything pretty much on plan. Playing a little bit of catch up (to my model not theirs) and investment thesis fully intact. I'm just glad to not have to hear anymore about the bottleneck BS ... that issue is not at all uncommon.
Net Net ... I think you change your model (too high). Mgmt focus is on "balance sheet strength" and given that it would be unexpected to see them flex their production growth capacity (assuming Dimmit sale goes ahead).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- SEA
- Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report
Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, page-33
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 105 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)