March-19 quarterly projections, page-14

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justinmetals

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01/05/19

10:43

Post #: 38348008
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Originally posted by brucesterfer ↑

Overall, a great quarter, as expected. Some in's and out's compared to my analysis above but overall better than I projected thanks to less PPE & exploration payments and slightly better cash receipts Some additional boring cashflow analysis on my behalf of the quarter:

Positives

Cashflow reflects two months of NGP as we are receiving NGP cash one month in arrears. This is good news, as we can expect to see higher NGP cash receipts next quarter (probably not greater total cashflows however due to $5.4m take or pay in this quarter).

IPL prepaid gas was included in revenue and then shown as a repayment. I misread this thinking it was in deferred revenue. Only 2 months was paid with the final 2 months to paid this quarter coming.

At $2.9m cash outflows for PPE were quite a lot lower than the $10.9m budgeted for this quarter. I thought this may be due to timing but there only an additional $3.5m next quarter...potentially some upside to their estimates? Exploration also lower by a couple $'m.

Mereenie outperforming. Great to see management trying to hiss as much as they can down the pipeline.

Net debt stands at c$70m vs c$74m AUD at Dec-18. Better than I thought but mainly due to lower PPE cash payments.

Negatives

PV obviously, especially the management tone. It's inline with when they brought it online in January, but it makes you wonder if pulling out of PV13 before reaching total planned depth was the right move now...seems like they may need to re-enter or prove up some resources to reserves to keep PV at maximum capacity of 15 TJ a day.

Overlift balance is now 4.4PJ, increasing 0.6PJ. This is essentially a $20m liability and just another thing to unwind.

Looking forward, management have estimated next quarter outflows of $23.9m. Obviously we will have plenty of cash with $19m on hand and cash receipts expected of....$18m (at a guess?). Expect net debt to continue to decrease as c$7m of the those outflows, will relate to debt repayment. Happy days.

Expand

Bruce,
I agree in principle that they should have drilled PV13 to total depth to maximise reserves but understood they decided to pull out of PV13 because they didnt know well enough the 'reservoir communication' and didnt want to risk the huge flows found early on when they decided to stop.

Perhaps someone in the gas game coould elaborate on the pros and cons of stopping early apart from saving $4m or so on drilling to total depth?

Thanks in advance
Last edited by justinmetals: 01/05/19

CTP Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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March-19 quarterly projections, page-14

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March-19 quarterly projections, page-14

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