re: my calculations for anvil
Firstly, I had to go out, so sorry for late reply.
Brenden first. You wrote "coppper has risen ...30%..or ..$700 since november . Anvil has been in the mid forties since november . 20000 tonnes of copper times $700 =$14m US In AUD , about $18m pa extra profit after stage 2 in june ''
You say pr.costs will be US.40c/lb.= US$880/ tonne. At US$2000/tonne in Nov less $880=$1120profit. Nov 17th A$ was 71.9cUS (US$=A$1.39). So $1120/t, 20000t @1.39 =A$31.13m. Now Costs US40c/lb. At US$2700/t less $880 =$1820 profit. A$ = 79c. (US$= $1.265), So $1820, 20000t @ 1.265 = A$46.04m.
I.E. Increase is $15m.. You forgot to decrease the original profit to be by the increase in A$. Also relevant is that in Nov. many thought that A$ was going to drop, (ask NAB) whereas now there's talk of thru 80c US. Also, as Avl hasn't expanded yet, it has to be considered that the forward price of Cu is down. Was Cu price in Nov. in contango or backwardation?. This is why I said your figures were based using wrong criterea.
Flats. Yes you're right, I was wrong regarding PE. I was trying to get it done whilst getting ready. What I was trying to say, was using expressed figures PE would be above 5 because of extra expenses which I quoted. There is also current exploration costs to offset expl costs already done on this project, plus admin costs. As a very rough guide I use Total costs to Pr costs ratio 3 to 2. The point I was trying to make is that PEs aren't worked out from cash ledger.
