ubs: updated view

�� Crisis of confidence and stop loss selling
BNB’s share price has suffered from a crisis of confidence following the BBP
refinancing. Stop-loss selling & margin calls have been prevalent, while few
investors have been prepared to buy given risks are beyond the company’s control.
Thus, we believe there is a high likelihood BNB’s share price continues to fall.
�� What could BNB do?
We believe BNB’s Balance Sheet and liquidity position remain sound and we do
not believe it is necessarily in the bank syndicate’s best interest to force BNB’s
hand. Banks have recently supported/extended both AFG & CNP, while BNB’s
financial position is much stronger than either. We believe BNB could (1) ask the
syndicate to waive the market cap clause (discussions are currently underway), (2)
accelerate sell-down of assets such as its wind pipeline, (3) Corporate action (such
as a MBO or break-up) can not be ruled out.
�� Moving from SOTP PT of $25 to a 0.9x NTA methodology of $6.80.
We have moved from an ongoing business valuation of $25 to a price target of
$6.80 based on 0.9x NTA until this issue is clarified. Our rating is now Neutral