NEXT SCIENCE LIMITED (ASX:NXS) - NXS - Fundamental Analysis, page-4 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by JamesRS ↑

Have recently spent a few days researching the company, the competitive environment, the technology, the alternative applications and the people behind the company. I've got a more detailed version of the below for anyone who's interested but the summary is as follows. Please feel free to add any substantive discussion or fundamental points. Probably would ask that anyone saying things like "ooo the share price has gone up this much today" or any discussion on charting be directed to the threads for this stock that are dedicated to those topics.

Short version summary here:

Solving a real problem of antibiotic resistance in open wounds. Current treatments are thwarted by what's called "biofilm" which is a shield for the nasty stuff underneath. This tech basically dissolves the external bonds and allows the bacteria (which is vulnerable) to be exposed and killed.

Patent protection - company and founder have a library of granted patents for the core product.

Founder led - founder still owns 11% of company and is still at the "lab bench" so to speak.

Capital light rollout strategy - partners with companies with large sales forces to push out sales. Currently using Zimmer Biomet and 3M for the products most suited to their end users

US Approvals - US FDA approvals already gained for 4 products

Revenue Generating Products - Cannot overstate how important this is for a medical company. Most never get to having a product launched and sell investors stories of future riches after FDA approval is granted. This company actually has products in the market that are also generating revenue. Run rate of USD 4m of U.S. sales for most recent calendar year.

Increased Distribution in 2019 - Sales force that is dedicated to products in the market already is set to expand as a result of end of successful pilot phase with Zimmer and being sold by the 3M Health sales force as of Jan 2019. Both are large multibillion dollar market cap companies with substantial sales forces. This is crucial for medical products - without the sales people the end users (Doctors and primary care providers) are orders of magnitude less likely to discover the product. Sales forces are crucial and undervalued by investors in this sector.

EU approval - set to be granted in 2019 for the two products in market. The overall EU market is comparable to the US one and is also already served by the distribution partners.

Future markets - possibility of further expansion to Japan and Australia after that.

New Product - for treatment of acne - same underlying tech as core - dissolves protective outer layer and allows the underlying blockage / infection to be treated. Trials show its more effective than common OTC treatments. The largest single OTC player in the space was turning over some USD $800m in sales (historical numbers) so the market is large - with the right partner, marketing strategy and branding something that is more effective would hopefully find a market. No value ascribed to this currently but just an interesting future opportunity to watch.

Funded - after capital raise of $35m and given current burn rates, has between 6Q - 8Q of cash. Enough to get some other data points about traction of product.

Management / People - Chaired by George Savvides - Ex MD of Medibank Private. Founder is clearly talented and holder of multiple current patents.

Large Addressable Market - large market coupled with a solution that is better (based on early indications) than standard line treatments. Chronic wound healing is a market that is growing in a secular manner due to the unfortunate increase in diabetes worldwide (results in chronic wounds and worst case, amputations) and the aging population (more time in bed, slower healing times, reduced immune function)

Positive Practitioner Feedback - early feedback from end users (Doctors) is very positive and shows that the products currently in the market meet an unmet need and are effective in the real world.

Expand

Thank you for this very informative analysis. I would like to add that NXS has a top notch Board supported by solid funding so the pipeline of future products plus current approved FDA products will be very well supported through their sales cycle.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	2242641	13.5¢

No.

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2242641

13.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.0¢	642631	11

Price($)

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14.0¢

642631

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	2172641	0.135
9	2100693	0.130
3	960000	0.125
1	750000	0.120
3	450000	0.115

No.

Vol.

Price($)

2172641

0.135

2100693

0.130

960000

0.125

750000

0.120

450000

0.115

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.140	641531	10
0.145	99437	3
0.150	1066000	5
0.155	1407692	8
0.160	243164	4

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.140

641531

0.145

99437

0.150

1066000

0.155

1407692

0.160

243164

(20min delay)
Last 14.0¢		Change 0.005(3.70%)		Mkt cap ! $40.96M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
13.5¢	14.0¢	13.5¢	$2.18K	15.92K

NXS - Fundamental Analysis, page-4

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