"The fact that there is no more exploration until 2021 does not help either"
There appears to be a common misconception here, this isn't specifically targeted at yourself
@prato but I have seen this kind of misinformation spouted a few times recently.
The fact is there is $80m in exploration spend underway, $60m on Dukas ($30m stage 3) and $20m on Range. CTP's partners are wearing the entire cost of this years exploration spend which is hardly a poor position to be in. In fact it's arguably a very good position to be in. CTP have the ability to focus on getting TJ's out the gate to sort out their debt position while the partners try to add on a few hundred PJ's of reserves.
Dukas Prospect – EP112 - Free carry with STO farmout to 70%
Data suggests the potential for 2.4Tcf (~2,400PJ) gas and 493Bcf Helium (10-15 x gas value)
I'd imagine that if Dukas is a success that the debt issue will be quite quickly resolved. STO committed to spending $60m to see if anything is there, for this they earn up to 70% of a prospect that has about a 20% chance of success (possibly higher after a few years of study). That the decision to invest $60m was made on a 20% chance of success we know that if a discovery is made they see the field being worth at least $300m (otherwise why bother?) which would value the 30% held by CTP at at least $90m. In exploration you don't generally make an investment like this unless the odds are in favour so in reality the field value upon discovery is likely well upwards of $600m therefore $180m to CTP. IMO if Dukas is a hit then CTP will have the option to free up some serious cash. That might be the time to get more aggressive on their internal exploration targets?
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Queensland Surat basin CSG – Range Gas Project – ATP 2031 – Free carry IPL 50% farm out
Targeting 150-180 PJ potentially recoverable ($1.2-1.4b at $8/GJ)
9 well drilling program in the Surat basin beginning soon, costs covered by IPL ($20m)
1 March 2018 a 50:50 joint venture arrangement for ATP(A)2031 in Queensland (the “Qld Acreage”
has also been agreed with IPL, allowing the fast tracking of the Qld Acreage. Under the joint venture arrangements, IPL will contribute up to $20 million for appraisal drilling costs during the initial exploration period.
It's obvious that the sentiment from stale holders here isn't too crash hot but at the end of the day it matters not, one glimpse of success at Dukas and we'll have a whole new lease on life. The company are now in a position where free cash flow is able to pay down debt rapidly so as a stand alone unit I see CTP as undervalued even without Dukas and Range. Should either of their free kicks hit goal then they will be grossly undervalued at current levels. The Dukas prospect while having a high chance of failure comes with massive upside should they get lucky, the Range prospect isn't anywhere near as big but with CSG the chance of failure is a lot lower.
2019 exploration spend is likely the highest ever for CTP despite the fact that they don't have to spend a penny on it.
