Can anybody please help with following?
4 months Gross profit is $78.6m, if we extrapolate for 6 months, GP for the 2nd Half comes to $117.9m. Assuming Q4 is better than Q3, let’s call GP for the 2nd Half $120m. GP for the first half was $160m. All up GP for FY19 should be around $280m, that’s $24m better than FY18 ($256m for FY18).
so shouldn’t the underlying EBITDA at least be at par with FY18? Unless the CODB is very high compared to last year. Last years CODB was around $90m, I mean even if CODB for FY19 is $24m higher, that’s like increase of about 25%, and still EBITDA should be at par with FY18.
so why downgrade from analysts? Given the market will be considering future numbers for FY20 and beyond, but the company is saying FY20 will be stronger than FY19, with few new coming drugs, better MCS and SBD segments.
I do not hold but am puzzled with outlook by analysts and massive drop in SP, where am I wrong?
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