The Value of success at Jaws and WE2, page-12

Yes agree rexsh particularly the "if" part. Always it comes back to what are the probabilities? What are the base rates for these types of projects?

That is the hardest part of the analysis and as I understand it can only be "guessed" by comparison with similar historic projects from around the world (both successful and unsuccessful).

There looks to be precedent for WE (as the company has communicated). However less so for SCB which is very deep coal seam methane where the geology is complex and sensitive and while "geologic success" is apparent, commercial success is far more uncertain. There are examples around the world at similar depth (around 2000m) in San Juan basin USA and China but typically elsewhere in the world a good deal shallower.

Having said that we can have a stab at an expected value. If we take ralphmouth's numbers as in the ball park, $311m for SCB and apply 10% say that gives us $31m odd plus WE of $600m at say 40% (company betting 69%!) that gives us $240m. So added together $271m or .20c/share expected value. That is still a good bet today if you believe those values and probabilities are about right or better.

I've almost talked myself into making a third bet on this company in as many years. So far there has not been any payoff!