AEE 3.13% 15.5¢ aura energy limited

Ann: Notice of General Meeting, page-24

  1. 88 Posts.
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    Dear PB,

    Most of us are not here for a dollar - that is the main difference - the 30% new holders are here for a cycle play of 10-20x returns.

    The spot price rise we are talking is not $5 or $8 like in 2018 but a sustained $35 plus.... the correlation for a project moving into production on an up commodity cycle can be researched with ample examples (10-20x returns are not uncommon - watch WKT as a current case study in play if you are struggling with the concept).

    Actually us holders who have arrived for the cycle, are happy to buy $1 of value for less than 10c, or at 0.6c - a 95% discount to potential 5 year future fair value. Let the sellers exit; let the DFS be produced; let there be further dilution to ensure Tiris is financed; then what happens when the cashflow at 3 mil pounds of production in 2023 (on $65 spot) hits US$100m @ a 3x multiple = US$300m cap which equates to over 15c AUD per share assuming doubling of current shares on issue.

    Future new dilution; Con Note; Plus Driller exit = US$30m of overhang (2019-2021) Vs US$100m in cashflow in potentially one year lets observe what wins the day over the next 5 years. Total Tiris project net cashflow is likely to be over US$500m after tax over the mine lifetime.

    In summary: As the U cycle unfolds AEE's sp potential is +0.5-0.8c on average for a US$5m move over the next +$40 spot move; this can be ensured by stock buy backs or increasing dividend payments as the free cashflow will be exceptional as the spot moves through US$65.


 
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