Well I disagree on the revenue side of things.
I have seen no confirmation of the $40/kg price. It is quite confusing given the numerous updates what the actual capacity has been but I can guess it has been at least 800tonnes this year. If 800 tonnes have been sold for total revenue of 12.5m then the price/kg is at most $15-20. To backsolve capacity for $40/kg price at 12.5m sales gives annual production of 300tonnes or 6 tonnes/week which is clearly less than what management has quoted. Therefore, the per kg price (at least in terms of recognised revenue) has to be much much lower than the figure everyone is quoting here.
Given that annual capacity over FY19 has been on average >800tpa and predicted sales last month was still some 12.5m and average capacity next FY is ~2200tpa, I can’t see how revenue can more than triple next FY.
Can anyone point out an error in these figures?
I guess there is a very strong chance of a sales upgrade over the 12.5m, but it is nearly the last month of the FY and surely this upgrade would have been made by now given the numerous other ASX announcements?
I don’t disagree with others regarding the bigger picture and I haven’t sold but I want to be sensible about expectations.
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