Ann: Quarterly Update - March 2019, page-5

Looking at Paragon after a while and struggling to understand the numbers.

Revenue:
March update says FY continuing business revenue of $240 Million, almost exactly double the 1H result; yet acquired Total effective November 2018; so new Total revenue is $1.5 and $8 Million in each half. This means continuing business revenue is going to fall $8 Million in 2H.

EBITDA:
IH EBITDA from continuing business was $9.65 excluding discontinued (obviously) and identified Lease adjustment benefit. If FY EBITDA is going to be $24 Million ($28 Million minus the Lease adjustment of $4 Million). So have to get EBITDA of $14 Million from operations. Total gives $2.5 so $11.5 from operations. Remember revenue appears to be lower by $8 Million in 2H so nothing there. The 2H EBITDA improvement of approximately $2 Million must come from cost savings. Realistic?

Discontinued Operations:
Management set a deadline of 30 June. They have also said that there are no takers for the combined capital equipment business and a piece-meal deconstruction is planned. It's May 28 and no announcements. The carrying value of those assets at the half was $26.4 Million. The value 30 June 2019 will reflect their true value and there will either be a loss on sale or an impairment; pick a number!

Overall:
Management is clearing the decks for the next phase and they will take all the bad news as a hit this year. There is more pain to come; it might be severe but it will also be short-lived.