OK, K67 understood.
BTW, I would not call myself astute on this investment. I challenged the investment thesis of flipping the undeveloped land for a motza harder than anyone here ... and copped a belting for it. My own research and experience told me that was more fairy tale than investment basis. However, the Montney, like many shales, is far from homogeneous, so it is possible that their seismic could have found something MUCH better than their neighbours. The "rookie mistake" is not understanding how quickly the CE1 balance sheet is "bloating up" (now at 1.44B shares and still expanding) and the "exit plan" these shareholders have in light of the "analogous to Saguaro" proof point. Every new share issued lowers their undeveloped land value per share (at $1,000/acre & 1B shares = 7.2cps; but with 1.44B its 5cps ... and if land isn't worth $1,000/acre and only $500/acre ... well arrive at where we are at 2.5cps).
Why I am STILL holding, as opposed to selling out (following whoever's lead and dumping their shares) is because, just like you, I'm sitting on an approx 50% loss. Sell or double down options???
Sell = 50% and say well I was right and stupid. The flip had to happen quickly and much higher land value than I thought possible and neither happened
Double down = invest same amount of capital again = reduce average to 3.45cps. Now what?? Wait for a miracle suitor to come to the rescue? OK say they offer $1,000/acre (double where we are now) ... CE1 balance sheet could easily be at 2B shares issued soon ... What have I gained for my risk .... not a lot or even NOTHING ...
So I'll just wait for longer, wait for the storm to pass ... see what's left after the destruction ... and formulate a new plan from the remains.
Expand
(20min delay)