Many people sem to be getting hung up on the lack of info re the sell price to HCL for the concentrate as the reason for the poor share price performance.
But if that's the case, then how then do we have all these other speccies in the market, without JORCs - some not even having pushed down a single drill-hole - with market caps fifteen times in excess of what IRL have. The market is guessing on what might be there with those companies.
Take uranium early last year. The dotcom stocks of 2000. Prices in these stocks surged without the type of information that you are suggesting that IRL put out into the market.
As I keep saying with IRL, it's only twelve months old. Yet, it's cranked up a mine, refurbished a concentrator, got a 1932 truck going, will soon have two JORCs on the table and has an active exploration programme growing at Aravalli. That's not to include the other negotiations going on. I don't know too many other companies that come even close to that.
Why is the information not out there? Because of a confidentiality clause in the contract. Is that reasonable? IMO, absolutely. As I've said before, IRL are a first-mover in India and we don't want others knowing what we bid on the contract. If we bid too low, it facilitates undercutting on future opportunities by competitors. There aren't too many companies out there who like to telegraph price data to their competitors in my experience.
The flipside also is that India is just opening up to foreign entities and the degree of transparency from State-owned enterprises will be guarded for a time.
That said. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and maybe the September quarterly will help us cut the numbers we need ourselves. The company is aware that this MAY be an issue in the poor share price performance.
Personally, I don't believe that it is the key issue. I believe that poor marketing of what the company has achieved is one of the key issues as I've said previously. Also, the market hasn't yet understood the nature of the opportunity in India and IRL is a first-mover.
To many in the market, India means risk. Australian investors seem to struggle to understand anything outside of Australia and the valuations that put on companies operating outside of Australia are very different to those given by overseas brokers on the same operations. That's why I think Toronto was a smart move by MK, and, if it goes somewhere, Dubai. These guys don't have the same issues with operating in foreign jurisdictions.
So, in answer to your question. To some extent, a rough guess is perhaps not needed at this point in time. There's some pretty good information out there (if you have done your reading) until September (see DJCs report). We'll just have to see what September's quarterly provides and then make an assessment of course from there.
The other point that I'd make that fits with the above comments is that it is sentiment that drives the share price. This is where the marketing comes in. This is where pressure needs to be put onto the company.
I'm interested in your interest in the stock. You've obviously posted a number of times about the stock and I note, "No stock held"
All the best.
BUSH
IRL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
