AEV 5.00% 1.0¢ avenira limited

peak phosphorous, page-9

  1. 2,142 Posts.
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    72mt dividend by 3 = 24 yr mine life.
    3mt x $350 = $1050m
    minus costs of $100/tonne x 3mt = $300m
    Earnings before tax of $750m/yr - 30%tax = $525m
    Shares on offer approx 74m tradable (dont kill me over these going off tradable amount on last investor presentation)

    $525m/74 = $7.09 eps

    So assuming production start july 2010, full yr earnings in june 2011 at current prices EPS of $7.09 sounds pretty good to me.

    Trade at PE-
    PE 1 = $7.09
    PE 2 = $14.18
    PE 5 = $35.45
    PE 10 = $70.09

    A PE of 11.28 will acheive the $80 mark that was brought up on SKY business the other day.

    So i do realise that a DSO will benifit the opex but i wont be complaining when SP is trading at even a PE of 1 in 2011. If its not a DSO it will definately add to the 24yr mine life.

    So heres to the initail 3mt a yr, hey whats stopping Andrew Drummond ramping up production once we are off and running.

    P.S who has some money to lend me so i can buy some more at these levels?
 
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