Good Question Maggie
I was doing some research on how volumes are calculated for reporting purposes on the weekend and also expanded that to how appraisal programs are designed. Found a really good article on LinkedIn. I will try to find it again and post a link if I can.
Basically Dorado 2, was down dip of Dorado 1 to determine contact. Based on report so far, CVN suggested the drill was very similar to Dorado 1. Also if you look at the various investor slides, they state it has capacity to add significantly to assessed volumes. Yes we still need WL logs to appropriately assess this hole, but there are no red flags yet. I will add that even if Dorado 2 had found nothing, that wouldn't have been a bad outcome as the whole purpose of an appraisal program is to provide certainty as to extent etc.
Roc South 1 is riskier, if they do find something there and they determine its connected to Dorado it would be a massive result. With Roc South, CVN have assessed a prospective resource of 74MMboe (P Mean). For comparative purposes Dorado was assessed at 125MMboe (P Mean) in an announcement dated 5 June 2018 (currently 128 1C and 283 2C). From the most recent investor presentation "63% chance of success with the potential to "surprise" if hydrocarbons connect to Dorado." That's CVN speak for let's organise a party of wolf of Wall Street proportions if it does connect.
Dorado 3, is then designed to reclassify reserves from contingent to probable.
This team has had great success with its drilling program in these blocks, supported by the 3D seismic they commissioned some time ago. The new seismic they are collecting will only add to the information they have to deliver greater success.
Based on Dorado 1 alone, this discovery is significant and is also significant to Santos, they didn't spend more than $1b for nothing.
DYOR and see a Dr if the pain persists
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