I sold out some years ago after holding for a couple of years, did ok by selling after a rally, but as someone building a long term portfolio my rationale for selling was this:
Extreme weather events have been rising, as a result of climate change (which is real, hence sailing through the arctic and other clear indicators) and they will continue rising. An insurer will have difficulty writing profitable policies in this climate (pun not intended but works).
I remember reading about Buffett reminisicing on his early days when BH was still largely an insurer. He had no qualms about not writing policy for long periods at a time when competition around premium pricing meant the returns on policy weren't great. He had that luxury because he could invest astutely and still make money in that way.
But how will QBE grow over the coming decades? They don't have such an option to cease writing policies, the market expects them to grow. So they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
In the meantime every other year unexpected bad weather somewhere in the world is giving them "once off" profit damage.
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