RLE real energy corporation limited

Commerciality of Tamarama 2 and Tamarama 3

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    Just wanted to put out some conservative numbers and see what happens.

    What we know:
    T2 flow rate = 2mmcd
    T3 flow rate = 2.5mmcd
    T2+T3 flow rate = 4.5mmcd
    Gas Price = $10 per GJ
    Well cost = $4.5 million per well
    Operating costs= $5 per GJ sold including processing charges
    Decline rate = 50 per cent per year (the decline rate IMO will be between conventional gas and shale gas because the permeability/porosity is between conventional gas and shale gas. I am still learning here. The decline rate is expected to be high first year but lower the following years. So this is conservative)
    Well life= 3 years (conservative because the well will operate more than 3 years possibly 10+ years)

    Results:
    Flow rate Year 1= 4.5 mmcd (average flow rate in year 1 is about 3.375mmcd); flow for Year 1 = 3.375*365=1,231mmc
    Flaw rate Year 2 = 2.25 mmcd (average flow rate in year 3 is about 1.688mmd); flow for Year 2 = 1.688*365= 616mmc
    Flow rate Year 3 = 1.125 mmcd (average flow rate in year 3 is about 0.844mmcd); flow for Year 3 = 0.844*365= 307mmc
    Flow rate Year 4 = 0.562 mmcd (wells are dead); Total flow for three years = 2,155mmc or 2.27 million GJ

    Total revenue for three years= $22.7 million ($10*2.27 million GJ)
    Revenue minus operating costs = $11.35 million
    Costs for two wells = $9 million
    Profit = $2.35 million for three years.

    So, I am reasonably confident the project is commercial but no guarantees smile.png I omitted Tamarama 1 because it was an exploration well. Once commerciality is confirmed our worries are over. T1+T2+T3 will bring revenue and wells costs are already been taken care of.
    Last edited by ggwill: 10/06/19
 
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