I hope you're correct, but EPS was 8.8c last year, expecting 12c this year would mean 30%+ growth, which seems like a big jump for a primarily bricks and mortar retailer. 1H19 reported 5.69c EPS. Previous years earnings have been weighted 55-60%/45-40% to H1, so without a significant new development it's unlikely 2H19 would report 6c EPS. 4-5c would be inline with previous H1/H2 splits and would give about 10+/-0.5c EPS for the full year.
That puts fair valuation around $1.50-1.80, about where we were before the pullback, suggesting the current pullback is largely a response to the SP having gotten ahead of itself. Chairman's selling was well-timed; not because he had insider information but simply because he looked at the announced forecast and saw that the SP was treating the full year forecast as already delivered instead of carrying 6mths of uncertainty risk. Well done to him for selling at almost the absolute peak, mildly annoying for the rest of us ;(
Anyway, while we missed an opportunity to sell and re-enter lower (assuming you wouldn't have a big CGT event), the outlook for the rest of 2019 is still good with probably 10-20% gains from current level...probably with more potential to surprise on the upside. If there's some big variance and it enters the 1.90-2.0 range then I'll likely be taking profits and waiting for a pullback as I think $2 would represent another Chairman-like selling moment.
AX1 Price at posting:
$1.37 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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