at the bottom drawer stock

Looking at the broker research there are two schools of thought. MQG analysts taking a quant approach have highlighted risk to margins and would are cautious even at these levels.

Merrills are unashamed value investors pointing out that HVN has fallen froma typical 19 times one year forward earnings to just 9 times, and this premium P/E erosion is why the stock has more than halved as earnings were growing. Of course 2009 will be tough, but I think retail therapy is alive and well in Oz and if you can't afford to upgrade your house, you might instead upgrade your electrical appliances. if you can no longer afford to drive aimlessly for pleasure, you might upgrade your computer for a cheap home entertainment. And if you want to stay at home and watch a movie, a decent flatscreen TV is much more satisfying than paying parking fines in the city.

I haven't held HVN for some years, but right now I agree with Merrill and hold a big stock and sold put position anticipating a decent recovery once we get the other side of all this pessimism.

Despite their limited rating slide, I am also now short WoW puts based on earnings holding up . In bull markets, analysts bullishly always expect too much. In bear markets, analysts succumb to fearing the worst. I suspect retail in Oz will do better than consensus.