copper and zinc about to break out

I think it is rather ironic the level of negativity towards both copper and zinc at the moment; I've heard so many calls for copper to crash and that zinc is sliding to nowhere. If we stand back a little from the everyday noise, technically we see a very different story.

Copper hit a it's all time nominal high in the middle of 2006 and has be etching out a very bullish two year ascending triangle ever since. It's currently creeping very close to it's all time high and the triangle break-out point. Based on this technical pattern, the target for copper after breakout would is rather substantial. All the while sentiment is terrible with analysts talking about the copper crash (while touching all time highs), or suggesting it is about to crash. Technically bullish with terrible sentiment makes for a surprising move.

Zinc has been in a 18 month downtrend that has carved out an enormous and very bullish descending wedge on the five year chart that is in line with Zinc's tendency to be rather explosive in price. Again terrible sentiment. As for fundamentals, the complexities of the commodities markets results in anyone forecasting surpluses/deficits, stockpiles and price is largely a slightly intelligent guess. Just look at analyst's track record for how much attention you should pay to it. The only thing worth remembering with commodity analysts is when everyone is saying the same thing, bet against it.

During the last great run up of commodities during the first part of this decade, oil ran, copper ran, then zinc, gold and silver. I think the same order is repeating once again.

If we look at the commodity boom of the 70s, it too was segmented into run ups and a couple of year of stagnant price and terrible sentiment before surprising everyone again.

Technically, it looks like we are again on the cusp of another one of those surprises and I expect copper to break out in the next couple of weeks, then zinc a month or so after that and finally gold will break out of it's symmetrical triangle formation it's currently building(as per usual, after a run to $1000 currently under way).

And the current sentiment dictates they will run a long way before analysts work out what the hell happened...

IMO DYOR