value for money or deadduck, page-6

thanks for your comments; I actually don't agree but have no problem being wrong. How can they be in a squeeze when they paid such a good dividend? Anyway, even if they step up and pay +2.5% on coupon, the rate of return on AAZPB is 19% per annum if you hold to say March 2010 (just assumed that date as a time when credit conditions will be easier).

I really think what will happen in Sep08 is one of two things (a) ALZ refinances notes with senior debt and note holders get paid full face value or (b) you get equity based on VWAP. Both these options are equivalent to a rate of return in excess of 45%. I am happy to take any of the three but, admittedly, the step up is the least attractive; I am long AAZPB.

By the way, on the same basis TIMPB is showing a rate of return of 60% and you can remove risk by selling CFD's on TIM; Best trade on ASX in my opinion!