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hookyonezero

670 Posts.

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29/06/19

09:45

Post #: 39299050
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Originally posted by ClockworkSmurf: ↑

Chat with squash then on to a spin off return consideration:

Firstly of course cheers for the reply.
To the conversation- fair enough but the empirical evidence points the other way. The steady news of growing EV sales etc has done basically nothing to support pricing for either the base metals or our sector when looking at share prices across the board.

A partnership announcement actually fits in to that sudden news scenario, not the macro story. It will be a case of ‘Come ooooooon share price..... improve! Come oooooooon!’ for goodness knows how long ( even if slowly improving thanks to wider market trend ), & then one day we will all wake up to see an announcement that none of us could have predicted accurately enough to be able to deduce what day it was going to occur.

Macro slowly improves or damages prices- unexpected & sudden events are what send things flying.

Example? It wasn’t the macro conditions that sent us flying in 2017. It was mostly down to 2 single events which came out of the blue & the market could never have predicted- Katanga taking 25 (?) ~% of world supply off the table & cobalt 27 creating the world’s largest stockpile.

I think of it like this- macro is the foundation, the bulk of the cake while the unexpected is the icing on top.

As always though the truth is probably somewhere in the middle & never fear- the underlying macro story is improving & the ‘sudden’ announcement of a partner will most likely supply the shock ( surprise ), that I long for. We will both be rewarded for our thinking.

**Spin off consideration. If our SP was 40 cents when we get our shares from the Godolphin spin off & we receive say 1 share for every 4 ARL shares we hold, that is basically a dividend ( or chance at one ), or over 10%

4 shares of ARL @ 40 cents? $1.60
1 share ( holder reward in spin off ), @ 20 cents?
1/8 of $1.60, so actually 12.5% but let’s round it down by applying the higher price to ARL & lower price return for the spin off shares. It’s still 10%

In a pleasingly infuriating way, the lower the ARL SP goes before the issue of the spin off shares, the higher the potential dividend becomes in comparison. I know I just said that out loud but don’t worry- it’s a catch 22 that requires support for the ARL SL if people wish to take greater advantage of it.

Therefore I do see it as a rational way for people to justify buying shares here even more than before- we are actually spoilt when it comes to the hedging against the market our wide variety of minerals gives us & how careful/considerate our management has shown themselves to be.

Nickel etc down? Gold goes up. Market stability pushes gold down? Generally speaking manufacturing goes up & drags the nickel price up with it.

End - except to say welcome to any coming across from a stock who’s management has acted in almost the opposite way to ours here. We don’t need your money but you can easily jump in & grab some rewards later in the year if you’re so inclined. ( I know you can’t stick your heads up in here for fear or being attacked by the mob over there but oh well- welcome nonetheless whether buying in or just reading ).

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More preaching from the pulpit bla blah bla is all I see

its all spin

spinny spin spin spin spinny spin bla de bla bla bla blady bla

ARL Price at posting: 37.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 46.0¢		Change -0.010(2.13%)		Mkt cap ! $91.85M

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Pertinent market/industry news/articles, page-1820

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