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29/06/19

10:33

Post #: 39299497
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Originally posted by Rob826 ↑

I’m a LTH with a positive outlook for the next 3-5 years. I added a significant parcel at $1.65 following the April production update, thinking that this was a major positive and that it would be onwards and upwards from here. Obviously regretting this decision now, but overall I’m still happy holding at an average of $1.70.

What’s got me concerned at the moment is the GXY silence about production costs and recovery since the Mt Cattlin record production update on 13 May 19. A lot of comments on this forum seem to assume that final product grade moving forward will be above 5.92%, recovery will exceed 61% and cash cost per tonne will be lower than US$329/dmt. I really hope this is the case, particularly given Joe Lowry’s comment “one months production does not make a trend” (or words to that effect).

That being said, the sceptic in me assumes this may not be the case. If GXY achieved further record production, or just improvements in any of the performance metrics listed above, I would have expected to see another monthly production update relating to May production. This could/should have been released in mid-June, yet we’ve had silence - why? I believe that they may have failed to sustain the April production results, and as appears normal from Galaxy Investor Relations, are once again holding on to the bad news until the quarterly.

I really hope this isn’t the case and I am bullish long term, but if I were the company and had backed up the April performance with another record month in May, I’d be shouting it from the rooftops to prove people like Joe Lowry wrong. There is absolutely no benefit in withholding positive production results until the quarterly, hence my suspicion.

I genuinely hope I’m proven wrong. Guess we’ll see.

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Hi Rob

It’s very difficult for us here to speculate about monthly or quarterly production costs... they trend, sure, but very strongly depend on the mine planning specifics.
At this stage, imo, the best we can do is take the latest guidance from the guys that do actually know what’s coming up (mine planning wise), which iirc was a bit over $350/t for H1 and a bit under $350/t for H2.
Us trying to guess to within the nearest few dollars is pointless. It will change monthly and let’s just hope the above averages are close. A great outcome if they are.

Cheers

GXY Price at posting: $1.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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