Ann: Appointment of Corporate Advisors, page-123

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densamer

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09/07/19

10:51

Post #: 39434290
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Originally posted by densamer: ↑

PamplonaTrader made a fair criticism the other day. I've argued a few times about this stock being overvalued compared with a basket of similar stocks but I haven't really provided any evidence to support my argument. I had done comparisons but I hadn't shared them with anyone here because my aim was to simply to challenge some of what I perceived to be hype. I know a lot of people here are speculating on potential revenue but I think revenue models for explorers can be misleading because there are so many unknowns. Any revenue estimate has a low level of confidence IMO due the number of untested/unverifiable assumptions you need to make at such an early stage of a potential project.

For that reason, I keep my comparisons simple looking at basic things like the location, ownership structure, grade and tonnage and whether the deposit is likely to be mined by underground or open pit. People might think this type of analysis is too simple but I think it's the most objective way to compare juniors when there are still so many unknowns. I'm not anti-ADT in any way, in fact I still recognise that it has a lot of potential. I'm just trying to understand why this end of the market values juniors like ADT so much higher than than other similar stocks. I'm starting to maybe recognise that unknowns (i.e. people speculating on blue-sky potential) and the strength of the register may partly explain this valuation gap. Anyway, good luck with your investment

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I forgot to include tranche payments that will progressively roll in for the second one, so the EV is actually a lot less. It brings the Ag.eq Moz/EV up to 2.9 so it's ranked second. All represent good potential and value in my view.

ADT Price at posting: $1.16 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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