Summary of key points I have learnt from listening to Ken Fisher this year:
- bull markets dont die of old age or length
- bull markets die in a whimper not a bang
- bull markets generally finish in a long broad roll
- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months (currently about 1.7 months)
- the gdp weighted yield curve needs to turn negative (it did so briefly recently)
- LEI index needs to be high but declining
- signs of euphoria must be present
- unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise.
Then if all the above has occured, Mr Fisher waits 3 months after the S&P500 has peaked before becoming concerned. At that point "the greater fools" (Ken Fishers words) buy the final rallies from the more seasoned investors who reduce exposure prior to the final third phase of the contraction.
