No one had any idea the Capex was going to be $505mill. The market was expecting a drop under $850 mill but that was it. As no one knew the extraction changes entailed effect upon infrastructure. Only civil costs were anticipated and they were a fraction of this saving. When the civil costs were announced the SP barely moved.
Id expect the SP to just continue soldieringforward in fluctuations with jumps on future announcements. Biased toward the pursuit of thesenumbers in all likelihood.
Check timeframes beyond EIA on existing companies with MLs. Post EIA average is 6 months with fast succession of approval announcements. Boils down to EIA which is being looked at now.
Given the high IR anticipated but yet unconfirmed in the feasibility and broker evaluations up to 40 cents as is pre EIA. I wouldn’t be surprised the market is happy to sit within 20-40 cents knowing that SP post EIA to ML $1. As $2-$5, would be more than fair in SP when operational via export concentrate.
Given these numbers anything under 30 cents looks a solid buy. As its surely worth ten times that amount in SP and 30 cents worth roughly one future dividend given the project went ahead 2021.
