BOT botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

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Acne Phase 2 - Probability of Success and Likely Market Response, page-5

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Fela

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12/07/19

11:44

Post #: 39492384
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Originally posted by Freighter32: ↑

An interesting report:

https://www.iqvia.com/-/media/iqvia/pdfs/institute-reports/the-changing-landscape-of-research-and-development.pdf?_=1562887649311

With topical treatments working from a base 50% success rate for Phase 2 trials (@Jalaluddin if I remeber correctly you've posted some info on this over the last several months?), and considering the indications we've received so far, BOT remains a compelling investment at these levels given the magnitude of the markets we will be involved in.

Also worth noting that when using composite success rates for clinical phases, they include areas such as oncology, which form a large number of trials with a far below average success rate, effectively dragging down the composite rate significantly.

https://www.iqvia.com/-/media/iqvia/pdfs/institute-reports/the-changing-landscape-of-research-and-development.pdf?_=1562887649311

"Despite the accounting for almost 30% of the R&D product pipeline in 2018, composite success rates for oncology are only 8%.."

"Phase II oncology drugs have about a 25% chance of making it on to the last phase. The general oncology Phase III success rate is 40%."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4051661-investors-guide-clinical-trials-phase-success-rates-introductory-pipeline-analysis

Interesting to also see the rate and size of increase of big pharma:

https://www.iqvia.com/-/media/iqvia/pdfs/institute-reports/the-changing-landscape-of-research-and-development.pdf?_=1562887649311

Given we have at least 5 pillars (Matt hinting at more to come..):

Acne;
Atopic Dermatitis;
Psoriasis;
Antimicrobial; and
Permatrex.

with each of the first 4 having multi-billion dollar markets, the above is of significant interest when considering the next few months of BOT's development.

And Vinnie on board with his track record of multi billion dollar sales of R&D companies like BOT.

Everything lining up nicely..

Expand

Some solid insights in the report - and good pickup on the fact that oncology has tended to push down success rates.

I also found it interesting that there is little to no reference to dermatology trials - which IMO highlights the extent of unmet needs across the various conditions BOT is exploring.
BOT Price at posting: 25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Acne Phase 2 - Probability of Success and Likely Market Response, page-5

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Acne Phase 2 - Probability of Success and Likely Market Response, page-5

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