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12/07/19
18:27
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Originally posted by BobF:
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Of course you are free to think whatever you like. But I think you have reached conclusions that are somewhat at variance with what we have observed taking place. 1) Yuval, Shay and Danny have all said that they originally expected it would take a while to perfect a fully working device. But after the prototype that they did produce in 2008-9 (?) Fred Bart was prepared to buy the company to save it from never getting to market via that slow route. Instead they were challenged to go from their simple working prototype to a mass production ready device in what was hoped would be around 5 years. That was the original 4 phase plan. 2) As Dany Lewin said at the AGM a couple back his fear was that they would only discover unanticipated complications right at the end. And that is what happened to stage 4 devices in mid 2017 when the voltage/stiction problem showed up. But they have gone forward from that set back to stating unequivocally that as of May 2019 they have solved that problem, and that it was the last problem they expected to have to solve to complete a fully validated device. My conclusion? That is not slow work. It is breakneck speed by a very capable team of engineers both at AP and TJ. 3) The patented and patentable IP is clearly being protected, and gives them - and us - a lot of assurance that the processes needed to use DSR in any MEMS device is going to have to do a whole lot of side tracking and innovating to bypass AP's IP. That will make it difficult for any competitor to overtake them in a hurry. 4) Fred has stated repeatedly that he recognises the value of taking the device through to a marketable finished product going out to customers before he (as a major holder) would consider selling the company. And why would he? It will not fulfil its value proposition until it is being used in hundreds of thousands, millions, billions of sound producing devices. All it would take currently is for a big smartphone manufacturer like Apple or Samsung to use it and there will need to be extra FABs built just to meet that customer's demand. 5) you may prefer to be a millionaire in 5-10 years rather than in 1-2 years but I do not believe I will have to wait quite that long.
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My only worry about the value of AP's patents is that they might begin to expire only a few years after we're finally ready with a commercial product - and so drastically limit the amount of money we can make before competitors are free to move in. I'm basing this on the normal duration of a patent being 20 years from first filing. Am I right in thinking this? And do others have concerns about this?