It would be great to see the forum pull out of this somewhat enless debate on technical capabilities as its getting repeated and reaching a point of deminishing return on everyones good effort & analysis. Full respect & appreciation to everyones input thus far but it would be good to start looking outside this box at business & market projections.
Woodmaster:
"But while the sp is low it brings out my pessimistic side"100% true as i feel it too, but thats generally a good sign to buy as the market is most likely feeling the same way and it reflects a low point in the emotional cycle. I've got a decent position (in my eyes) now and i topped up last time we went to 7.2c. For now im happy with my position & i will look to buy again when FBR either kick some goals or atleast commit to a decent forward looking plan.
I believe FBR has the potential to be a very valuable investment in the long term with the capacity to disrupt an out-dated industry of huge scale & value. IMO The business case is solid, the technology is achievable and the market unbeknownst as of yet is yearning for this change.
My disgruntles so far are that FBR have been making statements about strategic corperate structuring to fast track commercialization but i'm yet to see them actually lay out some goals... Not sure if this is their defensive poker face to help negotiate better financing terms or investment deals as they wont have a public commitment that could work against them... The secret squirrel approach could be for good intentions but it also speculates doubt from investors as investors will struggle to believe in a company that doesn't show belief in itself through projections. They've used the dynamic progression for the unforseen pivotal change from CAT to WAAS, which in my mind was a good move but they've got their direction now. If they want to rekindle the hope, IMO they need to give investors something thats shows they have a plan, even a pretty A5 projected timeline would do.
So far FBR only seem have their original & somewhat outdated prospectus driven goals which are unfortunately a double edged sword as they're laced with dilution that will soak up a good portion of the market value when achieved. I would like to see non-performance share driven targets, for example:
2019, Q3 -
• 11 homes built by HX1
• EU, UK, UAE HX2 Road show
• Progressive communication with international governments
2019, Q4 -
• FBR Australia Final Investment Plan commenced
• USA, Central & South America Roadshow HX2
• Lessons Learnt from initial builds and a HX V2.0 plan
• Ramp up in commercial builds, 50% capacity of HX1
2020, Q1 -
• Final Investment Plan Completed
• Contracts with perth Govenment for affordable housing estates
• Ramp up in commercial builds 80-90% capacity of HX1 & 2.
• Contracts with home developers, maybe tied in with strategic investing for example 5-10% of FBR Australia.
• FBR Australia recieve financing (debt,/investor/offtake)
• FBR commence build of 10-20 HX
• Parterships established in UAE, EU (WB), UK, Americas, Canada
2020, Q2 -
• First 5 HX built & deployed
• Expansion plan for 20-30 extra HX to move into strategic locations (my calcs show that 50 HX will see FBR move well & truely into positive cash flow.
So on & so on... Once FBR can get 50 HX working, they should then be able to service their debt & overheads if they so wish to, but ongoing healthy debt is good as it boosts growth where growth is demanded.
The above is what i would call a fast track to commercialization, but from my experience in the stock market & working in a multinational company. Things don't move as fast as anticipated as executive meetings are scarce so add a year or even dbl the above projections. If we can have 50 HX operating by 2021 than the upscaling effect will exponentially grow from there.
Ive put my spreadsheet up a few times now, but i like to use it as a visual aid to see the rate of growth from a fleet of 50 HX.
2664.pdf
(20min delay)