Largely i think the whole exec is (or was) way out of their depth, but they have now graduated mining 101. Sure these things have teething problems but alot of this seemed avoidable and the delays have been hugely expensive, which is why they graduate without honors.
I agree we can't put it aside, but it is what it is and kinda leaves us with only a few ways forward to continue the discussion as Mikesz kinda pointed out.
- its technically and fundamentally oversold and as a result you could imagine a re-pricing to 1.2c just on a change in sentiment, prior to a production rerate.
- the projects will become a money pit, and we'll get a fatal blow in the crusher not being refurbishable or some other rubbish, which then sees a obvious end coming sooner rather than later due to cash burn.
- she rerates to buggery as tin turns upwards into the latter part of the year and semi-conductor sales pick up + trade deal, blah blah blah.
Personally, i think they may have just have finally broken murpheys law with granville and literally every mistake HAS been made (past tense), as such how much could go wrong with to giant metal rollers being fed dirt. (knock on wood)
If they can generate cash flow, then 2c+ is very achievable bolstered by taronga POSITIVE news, noting i think she's oversold due to toxic sentiment (understandable).
I think for most of us now its a wait and see. for others there is a very good trade here, but as with all things your risk appetite will largely determine your next move.
ANW Price at posting:
0.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
