Just did a view of the weekend lithium threads and there are a lot of wild calls accross the sector.
One interesting takeaway for me is all the talk of future Lithium supply shortfalls being interchangeable with spodumene supply.
Even while the most bullish of lithium commentators like Joe Lowry dismiss claims of a current Lithium surplus, he is talking about Li Chemicals, not spodumene. In fact he suggests there will be a surplus of Spodumene for at least the short term (and he is probably the most bullish expert around). However it seems Australian investors hear Lithium shortage and translate the term to mean Spodumene shortage. Not the same thing. IMHO we will continue to see a spodumene surplus even if there is a Lithium (chemicals) shortage in 2 or 3 years.
GXYs future rests in the SDV and James Bay projects. SDV being brine will be greater exposed to Li chemicals demand upside even if spodumene remains oversuplied and in any event brine has higher margins. James Bay being designed as an integrated producer of Li Chemicals from the outset will be more isolated from any likely continuation of a spodumene glut.
I'm sure many will disagree with my assessment, but it is my opinion. The suggestion I make is next time you hear media speculation about Lithium demand, remember they are probably talking about the chemicals not spodumene. The same goes for battery shortages - a lack of battery supply doesn't mean a lack of Spodumene.
AIMHO
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