jpmorgan warnns about anz first wave, page-29

Not really a true DCF, but based on the same principle. My starting point is usually current earnings growing at inflation (ie. 3-4%). Discount at the going rate for an equity loan.

For ANZ you could play with the numbers to get anywhere between $10 and $50. A fairly conservative assumption of $2 EPS growing perpetually at 2%, discounted at 10% gives $25. (2.00/0.10-0.02). A quick and dirty starting point for me. Move the earnings and growth based on the business and outlook.

Nothing is certain in this game (including EPS forecasts) except fear and greed. Personal judgement (and realistically some luck) will make the difference between good and bad investment decisions. I go with what I know and ignore market prices (as Ben Graham always advised).

When my investments perform poorly, I don't blame the market, the banks, the govt or the regulators, just my decisions.

"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right [or wrong] because your data and reasoning are right [or wrong]." Ben Graham