Acne Phase 2 - Probability of Success and Likely Market Response, page-21

Congratulations on making top 2 in the Hot Copper forum Zabba and deservedly so. Nice comments from you regarding the clinical trial pathway and the probability of success. Could I add that there is an incredible amount of tension that will be built up in the weeks before the results of Phase 2 acne with BTX-1503. Your description highlights the magnitude of positive results not only for phase 2, but for the future commercialization of a unique acne product. It is mentioned by many companies out there who are developing novel acne products that they have something unique for the market that has had nothing really new for decades. This is correct but those novel entities have to deliver and it really all starts at Phase 2. We all know the exhaustive and lengthy processed involved with biotechs. This sector within the speculative end of the share market is known for two things. High risk and high reward. You have explained how management have mitigated the risk but the fat lady herself has not sang her soprano just yet. I consider myself a tessitura especially with all the practice my children have given me over the years. I am getting warmed up and as some have probably heard, the vocal chords need that certain lubrication that only a Bolly or Krug can give darlings.

Bob183 mentioned that Zabba referenced a company called Patrys(PAB). I didn’t see the obvious inference and no obvious mention of their name but having owned PAB myself and doing quite well out of them, the point is that PAB went down the mouse model route with their Phase 1 trial. The price spiked substantially when positive news came out . Our management as Zabba has made his main point is that they have substantially de-risked BOT by doing amazing human testing. A few academic and scientific people actually say that using animal models at the pre-clinical stages is a ‘failed strategy’. If you are a biotech fan and have done plenty of reading on various HC forums, you would have seen detractors mentioning that mice are not men and results may not stack up. PAB mentioned that its lead item effectively treated brain cancer in mice and it did a large runner at the time. Risk and reward remember.

So folks, who or what has caused this to happen over the last six or so months? Who had the foresight to spend R and D money in a company that has been mentioned as lean and mean? Who got stuck into the anti bacterial quality of CBD that started in July 2018 when all we had around about that time was one acne product? I know the atopic dermatitis trial was going on then but most of us were focused on our company maker, that being Acne. So reading Zabba’s assessment certainly paints the picture towards success in Atopic Deermatits and Psorisis. Can you have a three company maker? You can have bags if the share price doubles but what will happen if we get positive Phase 2 outcomes from both Acne and Atopic Dermatits? All I can say is that we would have one hell of a special company with Intellectual Property the envy of many. Also the IP that could seriously upset existing dermatological companies. Hmmm. They say if you can’t beat them join them so this offers plenty of opportunities to those with large bank accounts. Or access to quick cash to make an overseas company’s balance sheet work a little harder.

So I would say Zabba has enlightened us all with where we are at. No that many mentions of failure by him but then he is taking the lead of management in this regard. You can be confident and over confident and I will add some ideas which I brought up recently about Vince and THAT interview that particularly intrigued me. However, if you cannot see that one plus one does not equal two if two Phase 2’s get up, then you have a short term vision in making money out of biotechs. Nothing wrong with making a profit. I sold a small amount at 27c and I have been looking at itineraries ever since. But I can see a much brighter picture here in the NEAR future. Not the long term. Then again, in an investment scenario I am sure that two years would be considered short term by many. Short enough to organise a phase 3 !

The Green Fund interview by Hugo Gray and by association the same investment house recommending BOT as one of its top 5 tips for 2019. Now hold on a minute and think about why one analyst, Mark Bernberg would recommend a pissant company starting out in the Mary Jane world, so unique and so new. Studies in the journal of Dermatological Science as far back as 31^st October 2006.(can you remember what you were doing in 2006, and how fast that has gone so Vinnies ideas of Phase 3 in the interview may not have been made after Hugo offered him a giant spliff to inhale. Vinnie could actually have been straight, coherent,functional,rational and not immersed in a cloud of white smoke that would have made Cheech and Chong proud) showed way back then that CBD inhibits human keratinocyte proliferation. From Zabba’s posting mention is made of 3 important ways in which BTX-1503 works. Firstly, it is anti-inflammatory. Secondly, it has anti-microbial properties and thirdly, you guessed it, it works as an anti-keratinocyte proliferator. Sounds impressive doesn’t it ! Nottingham University showed that too in 2006 and coincidentally my grandparents lived in Nottingham for decades. Coventry born here. So the optimism that Vinnie showed in that interview intrigued me and also his mention of trains( choo choo ) and not rockets thankfully and also onions. I was just thinking that I hope the onion he was peeling wasn’t going to make him and therefore us cry.

“We will study what the data tells us about opportunities to take it to Phase 3, or we could monetize it, or take it to that next train station. We now have the skills, and the resources to take this stuff to Phase Three and ultimately through to commercialization. And that gives us real functionality that we didn’t have before. Optionality is the key message here.”

Read that again people and if this is not being very positive I do not know what is. Talking like this can be attributed to someone who has had decades in Big Pharma world and knows the game OR as many punters in spec land be it in mining or whatever know, someone talking through their derriere. Which is precisely why discursive got boned for his last comment by the moderators. It wasn’t very good and he might have been on the wacky tabacky. Just looking at Vinnie makes you smile, he oozes class, he understands numbers, he understands value, he understands potential, he understands what the world needs. Vinnie has massive contacts in the pharma world as we have heard so pushing on for even greater rewards could happen quite easily.

So friends, what we all need is for BTX-1503 to successfully meet its primary and secondary endpoints in September. Then it will suddenly get a lot more exciting.