All looking extremely tight, the massive quarterly overspend is hard to swallow - they cannot seriously have been blindsided to that degree? Generously they’ve nearly fully optimised the plant and set up for a first profitable quarter, cynically it’s creative accounting to mask costs or at least similar development costs will be needed to creep closer to their nameplate recovery and output. If they achieve the cost reductions predicted to the high $300’s USD and maybe achieve high $500’s sale price on approx 50,000 tonnes of output it means around $14,000,000 AUD gross profit per quarter. A few big ifs in there, factor in the debt and their projected outgoings and things are tight for the following quarter too. Approx $30 million in the kitty post SS funds, 50,000 x $580 USD (x1.4 to AUD) gives cash of $70 million less outgoings of >$50 leaves end of quarter balance <$20 million. EV with debt in place of $400 million looks stretched, the business as is even if the company starts achieving their financial predictions is being valued on the hope that spod recovers, debt is refinanced or plant exceeds design parameters. Hope in an uncertain macro environment and near term oversupply is a brave investment stance...
AJM Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
