For today's contrarian view....... triggered by two other contrarian views.
With the prospect of the convertible notes already costing shareholders 12% in real terms of value (in just six months) when they are converted, there are 3 other large factors that should be careful consider. 1 - Is at the date of conversion they are exchanged at a 10 % discount for the facility investors. Another discount on top of the first. 2 - The monthly options likewise are all at 10% discounts and 3 - Two of those monthly options are allowed to occur at 58 cents. In a nutshell it is hard to see how the share price is going to rise when these anchors are holding it back. Remember the convertible notes are liabilities now. Not investors who were willing to take a risk but loan agents who have have covered there butts no matter what happens.
Posters therefore are hoping for great data to compensate for this liability, to make all this work in their favour. But so called “great data” was already declared with the first CEP trials that was supposed to trigger the next phase II trial. You will remember Dr Kelly clearly stating to the public
"Noxopharm, currently promoting NOX66 on a roadshow through Singapore and Hong Kong, plans to report on initial trial results before Christmas – and
have a drug on the market within five years.
“We expect to know by
end of 2017 of the success of our mission,” the company reported this month in its roadshow presentation.
“We aim to be in a
registration study by end of 2018 [and] to have marketing approval by 2022.”
https://unauthorised investment adv...ts-nox66-cancer-drug-trial-results-christmas/
So hope for promising data has to be tempered and viewed by the lens of history of what has already been promised. As the first round of CEP data triggered nothing expect a shift in favourite horse to market. And the irony is we back to the first horse again CEP2. With another round of phase I trials.
So the whole new funding has it new borrowers complete protected by the shareholder burdening any down side, any up side again favours the borrowers and what makes this really sad is there no IP on the coco butter delivery system as yet, though they are at the last stage of finding out, and idronoxil the active drug is past it used by date for any IP protection. In a nut shell everyone is betting on horse that is not owned by anyone at this point of time. All they have is the promise from the company that it will all work out. And frankly it is quite reasonable to hold those promise to account from the past. This why I believe they had to go down the convertible note funding raising path, as no large investors could be found this time around to back such a horse after the last CR at 90 cents where investors were burnt with dates that did not come to pass. Below is an example of the description of the what investors are stumping up for.
“each suppository including:
400 mg or 800 mg of idronoxil;
a suppository base in the form of cocoa butter;
wherein the suppository base in provided an amount of 1-99% w/w of the suppository”
Example 1 Formulations
- To make 2mL total volume suppository of 400 mg idronoxil in cocoa butter (theobroma oil): density of cocoa butter (1.72 gm per 2 mL) and density displacement factor of idronoxil (1.1). Thus, 400 mg idronoxil will displace 440 mg cocoa butter, thus need 400 mg idronoxil+1.28 gm cocoa butter. Melt cocoa butter in water-bath at 40° C.; add idronoxil; mix vigorously to obtain dissolution; spray moulds lightly with vegetable oil (eg. peanut oil); pour in cocoa butter mix; cool at 5° C.; remove from mould.
- To make 2.5 mL suppository of 500 mg equol in Fattibase, 500 mg equal is dissolved in 1.70 gm Fattibase melted to 50° C.
- To make 2 ml suppository containing 100 mg genistein, 100 mg genistein dissolved in 1.65 gm Witsepol melted to 50° C.
https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=US242622411&tab=PCTDESCRIPTION&_cid=P22-JYS2XR-03489-1
(20min delay)