Ann: Revised 2019 earnings guidance, page-26

ABC is a cyclical company, those that have used last 10yrs data are forgetting that property has been booming for 10+ yrs.
why not look at the 20/30yr data

secondly for cyclical companies, the time to buy is not at the start of a downturn, but well into the downturn.

or another way, 15x bottom of the cycle earnings, all other factors being equal.

bottom of the cycle underlying earnings between 18c (current) and 10c ( wild guess)
equals buy in share price of between $1.50-$2.70.

not there yet, so I am still on the sidelines.

why buy so early???