Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-434

update on these points..

- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months (currently about 2.3 months)
- the gdp weighted yield curve needs to turn negative (it has recently, see charts below)
- LEI index needs to be high but declining (US LEI flattening. June down 0.3% to 111.5)
- signs of euphoria must be present (?)
- unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise. (yes in Australia, not yet in US)