"Not sure really." & "There is a fair bit of incentive to hit that price before expiry. "
Where is that incentive? It's I tell you is not in the market. The market does what it will do. Your sentiment is your incentive and nothing more. You put up a target you might as well place it on your back. The bullet of a warning shot will be long gone before you hear it passing. You be lucky you didn't get hit.